Leftists have one edge going into the midterm elections. That edge is fortunate geography that offers Democrats cause to believe they can keep their small Senate majority. However, given the current political climate, it will not be sufficient to save Democrats.
The Red Wave
Last week’s massive GOP gains in Virginia and New Jersey imply the districts Democrats barely won in state elections (like in Georgia and Arizona) will indeed be hard to protect. Therefore, the Senate field might be widened by the introduction of one or even more top-tier GOP competitors.
The 2022 geography favors Democrats in general. It saves them from preserving Senate seats in any areas Trump won last year. However, historical midterm patterns are conspiring against Democrats. President Joe Biden’s approval numbers are also plummeting.
Jesse Watters: If Biden didn't have mainstream media propping him up, his abysmal poll numbers would be worsehttps://t.co/eQCa834asT
— Fox News (@FoxNews) November 9, 2021
The liberal majority in the Senate is significantly more tenuous than it was at the start of Biden’s tenure. We are only one year before the midterm elections and Republicans need only a net gain of one member to assume charge of the evenly divided body.
Republicans are on the Rise
“Circumstances like this wouldn’t come along every day,” Josh Holmes, Mitch McConnell’s former aide, remarked. Holmes continues to advise McConnell on his candidacy.
“You’ve selected the correct year if you’re a conservative running for political office this time.”
Joe Biden's poll numbers are abysmal. Somehow Kamala Harris is doing even worse. Impressive. pic.twitter.com/KUEf6yIfjT
— ForAmerica (@ForAmerica) November 9, 2021
The impetus for rising GOP hope is a winning testing ground in the Virginia gubernatorial contest.
Glenn Youngkin, the GOP’s Virginia governor-elect, demonstrated a state Republican nominee can ignite Trump’s base, while also winning over Independent voters and urban voters who abandoned the party during Trump’s administration.
Republicans might put together a victorious blue-state alliance, according to the Youngkin strategy, while holding the former president at arm’s length.
Conservatives are also analyzing the results in New Jersey where Democrat Gov. Phil Murphy narrowly won 51 percent of the vote to 48 percent in a state Biden won one year ago.
Prior to last week’s outcomes, GOP internal polling indicated middle-class voters in key states were leaning conservative. It also showed that victory messages would include calling out rising prices, calling out excessive government expenditure, and highlighting the need to prohibit “critical race theory” lessons in schools.
How can Democrats stop the red wave? They can get rid of Biden, plain and simple. If the Democrats hang onto Biden leading up to the midterms, they will find themselves struggling to maintain even a close minority.
As it stands, the Democrats will lose big time in the midterms. If they keep Biden as is, it’s over and the Democrats will never recover. If they drop Biden and the Build Back Better agenda, the Democrats will stand a small chance of retaining the majority.
Even then, they shouldn’t hold their breath.